WEEKLY REPORTIssue #12 · March 14, 2026

M&A Spread
Analysis Report

Week of Mar 10 – Mar 14, 2026 — Comprehensive analysis of 10 active merger arbitrage opportunities with spread calculations, risk assessments, and return projections.

Report Snapshot
10 Active Deals
$196B total deal value
01

Executive Summary

This week's merger arbitrage landscape presents a favorable environment for spread investors. With 10 active deals representing $196B in aggregate transaction value, opportunity breadth remains strong. The average gross spread sits at 4.79% with an average annualized return of 16.3%.

4 deals carry low regulatory risk with clear paths to closing. 3 deals remain elevated-risk due to ongoing antitrust reviews or complex deal structures — these offer the highest spreads for those with conviction. The top opportunity this week is AbbVie → Aliada Therapeutics at 34.2% annualized.

Avg Gross Spread4.79%
Avg Ann. Return16.3%
Best Ann. Return34.2%
Total Deal Value$196B
02

Top Picks This Week

Highest Conviction
#1High
AbbVie→Aliada Therapeutics
Biotech · Cash · $1.4B
Spread
5.69%
Ann. Return
34.2%
Conviction
Close
0d
Phase 2 data readout could affect deal; antitrust low-risk
#2High
Qualcomm→Alphawave Semi
Semiconductors · Cash · $4.9B
Spread
6.85%
Ann. Return
22.8%
Conviction
Close
0d
CFIUS national security review ongoing
#3Medium
Diamondback Energy→Endeavor Energy
Energy · Cash & Stock · $26.0B
Spread
5.57%
Ann. Return
18.6%
Conviction
Close
0d
State regulatory approvals pending; shareholder approved
03

Complete Deal Analysis

10 Deals
Annualized Return Distribution
Aliada Therapeutics
34.2%
Alphawave Semi
22.8%
Endeavor Energy
18.6%
Marathon Oil
15.8%
Juniper Networks
15.6%
Kellanova
14.9%
Tritax Big Box REIT
11.3%
Ansys
11.2%
Intra-Cellular Therapies
9.8%
Discover Financial
8.4%
01AbbVie→Aliada TherapeuticsHigh
Deal Value
$1.4B
Current Price
$24.60
Offer Price
$26.00
Gross Spread
5.69%
Ann. Return
34.2%
Expected Close
Apr 30, 2026
0 days remaining
Price Gap
$1.40
Analyst Note

Phase 2 data readout could affect deal; antitrust low-risk

02Qualcomm→Alphawave SemiHigh
Deal Value
$4.9B
Current Price
$4.82
Offer Price
$5.15
Gross Spread
6.85%
Ann. Return
22.8%
Expected Close
Jun 30, 2026
0 days remaining
Price Gap
$0.33
Analyst Note

CFIUS national security review ongoing

03Diamondback Energy→Endeavor EnergyMedium
Deal Value
$26.0B
Current Price
$52.10
Offer Price
$55.00
Gross Spread
5.57%
Ann. Return
18.6%
Expected Close
Jun 15, 2026
0 days remaining
Price Gap
$2.90
Analyst Note

State regulatory approvals pending; shareholder approved

04ConocoPhillips → Marathon OilLow
$22.5B
$28.40
$29.75
4.75%
15.8%
May 30, 2026
Stock
05Hewlett Packard Enterprise → Juniper NetworksHigh
$14.0B
$37.85
$40.00
5.68%
15.6%
Aug 31, 2026
Cash
06Mars Inc. → KellanovaLow
$35.9B
$79.20
$83.50
5.43%
14.9%
Jul 31, 2026
Cash
Premium Content
+7 more deals in the full report

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04

Market Breakdown

Risk Distribution
Low Risk— Clear regulatory path
4
Medium Risk— Pending approvals
3
High Risk— Active challenges
3
Sector Exposure
2×
Energy
2×
Technology
1×
Biotech
1×
Semiconductors
1×
Consumer Staples
1×
Real Estate
1×
Healthcare
1×
Financial Services
05

Closing Timeline

Expected Close Dates
AbbVie → Aliada Therapeutics
Apr 30, 20260d
Capital One → Discover Financial
May 15, 20260d
ConocoPhillips → Marathon Oil
May 30, 20260d
Johnson & Johnson → Intra-Cellular Therapies
May 31, 20260d
Diamondback Energy → Endeavor Energy
Jun 15, 20260d
Qualcomm → Alphawave Semi
Jun 30, 20260d
Synopsys → Ansys
Jun 30, 20260d
Mars Inc. → Kellanova
Jul 31, 20260d
Brookfield → Tritax Big Box REIT
Aug 15, 20260d
Hewlett Packard Enterprise → Juniper Networks
Aug 31, 20260d
06

Methodology

Spread Calculation

Gross spread = (Offer Price − Current Price) / Current Price × 100. Annualized return accounts for days to expected close date, assuming reinvestment at the same rate.

Risk Assessment

Risk ratings consider regulatory complexity (antitrust, CFIUS, sector-specific), financing conditions, shareholder approval status, and historical deal break rates for similar transaction types.

Update Schedule

Reports are published weekly on Fridays. Prices reflect the most recent market close. Deal status, risk ratings, and analyst notes are updated as material developments occur.

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